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Matthew Gagnon of Yarmouth is the chief executive officer of the Maine Policy Institute, a free market policy think tank based in Portland. A Hampden native, he previously served as a senior strategist for the Republican Governors Association in Washington, D.C.
All in all, it wasn’t that bad of an election night for Democrats in Maine.
I don’t think it could be classified “good,” but most of the things that Democrats were most afraid of — namely Jared Golden losing his Second Congressional District seat, and possibly losing the Maine House of Representatives — did not happen. Golden won, and even though the Maine House is very closely divided, it still has a nominal Democratic majority. Or at least, we think that is true as of the time I write this column, as there will be a recount in the 2nd District race, and there are 11 state legislative recounts going on at the same time.
Still, things were close enough that if the night had been just slightly more favorable to the GOP, it could’ve been considered a disaster for the Democrats. Golden held on by only 2,140 votes overall, and the legislative balance of power looks to have only been decided by a few hundred votes statewide. Many astute political observers wonder what might have been had Donald Trump visited the state, and spent any meaningful resources here.
Would a hug and handshake with Trump have been enough for Republican Austin Theriault who challenged Golden to flip the votes he needed? Would an honest, well-funded ground operation have been enough to pull Republicans over the finish line in Maine’s legislative races? We’ll never know, of course, but it seems logical to assume that these things could’ve made the difference.
And if that alternative reality would have happened — which it almost did anyway — there would likely be a reckoning taking place on Maine’s political left, similar to the one taking place across most of the rest of the country right now.
Indeed, that is a danger for Maine’s Democratic Party. Having narrowly escaped disaster, they could be lulled into the false belief that everything is just fine for them in Maine, and they should just keep doing what they’ve been doing. They might think their reckless financial management and spending binges are not an issue, and nothing to worry about. Or that their emphasis on southern Maine and coastal communities and apparent inability to connect with inland rural areas isn’t a big deal. And that their obsession with ultra-progressive identitarian politics is nothing to worry about.
The Democrats survived politically, so there’s no need to look in the mirror and ask hard questions. The unfortunate thing is that if they were engaging in some introspection, this election would have ultimately provided them some good lessons to learn.
Take Golden, for instance. In a year where Donald Trump won his congressional district by nine points, Golden somehow still found a way to win by holding his Democratic base together, winning among independents, and getting a significant number of ticket-splitting crossover votes from Republican Trump voters.
This is a remarkable outcome that only Jared Golden appears capable of producing, as he has built authentic, genuine connections with blue collar, working-class voters in rural Maine. Even Janet Mills, who is the only other Democrat with any proven credibility statewide in rural Maine, lost the Second Congressional District in her gubernatorial races in 2018 against Shawn Moody and 2022 against Paul LePage.
If they were smart, Democrats would be looking at Golden and using his brand of politics to build a permanent, unbreakable majority in Maine. They would be smart, I think, to hand him the keys to the kingdom, and beg him to run for governor in 2026.
And yet, it doesn’t appear that they have learned that lesson at all. The first thing that Maine Democrats did after this year’s elections was to elect six leaders to represent them in the state Legislature, all of whom live within 26 miles of Portland. Liberal voices are already trying to lay the groundwork for tax increases in the upcoming legislative session. Most of the non-Golden names that are already being discussed for gubernatorial candidates in two years — names like Rachel Talbot Ross, Shenna Bellows, Hannah Pingree and others — come from the progressive wing of the party, southern Maine, or both.
In my view, this would be ideological self-immolation, and political malpractice of the highest order. If Maine Democrats were wise, they would step back from the cliff they are flirting with, and would return to the center.
Alas, I don’t expect them to. Advice from the likes of me is not likely to be listened to on the left. They’ve likely convinced themselves that nothing is wrong, and advice from a right-wing libertarian is undoubtedly unwelcome.
But that’s just fine with me, because if they continue down this pathway, it is only going to increase the chances of a full-scale Republican takeover in two years. Then, and only then, might the lesson be learned.