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Maine voters — some of them at least — came out on Tuesday and registered their choices in a host of political races. School budgets and local town races were decided, legislative primaries were sorted out, and two congressional races saw Republican nominees for the fall emerge victorious.
Out of the two of them, Ron Russell in the 1st Congressional District and Austin Theriault in the 2nd Congressional District, Theriault is worthy of our attention.
With all due respect to Russell’s campaign in the 1st District, most observers (myself included) feel that his campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree is doomed from the start. Pingree has been in Congress since 2009, the district is 9 percentage points more Democratic than the nation at large, and she won her closest race — against Charlie Summers in 2008 — by more than 9 percentage points.
In the 2nd District, things are different. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jared Golden has been in office since 2019, representing a district that is 6 points more Republican than the nation, and has faced strong opposition in each of his campaigns, including his controversial first campaign against incumbent U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, where he became the first person to win a congressional race using ranked-choice voting.
Golden is well entrenched in the 2nd District, and has done exactly what he needs to do to survive politically. He makes votes that serve well to demonstrate a plucky independence, he picks fights against progressives on issues like student debt relief, and he is very visible in his district with an effective constituent service operation. He is politically savvy, and his background, demeanor and hard work make him formidable.
With that said, he is likely in for the hardest race of his political life.
Theriault is not a perfect candidate by any means. He is still unpolished, untested and had shaky moments in his campaign during the primary. He is, however, a much better match for the district than Poliquin and better equipped than any of Golden’s other opponents.
Poliquin, for instance, was energetic and enthusiastic and raised a lot of money, but never quite felt like his background and personality were the right fit for the blue-collar, rural populist 2nd District. Theriault is a lot younger, comes from The County and is a former NASCAR driver. Check, check, check.
Theriault also has institutional support from both the establishment wing of the party, as well as Donald Trump, who endorsed his campaign in the primary. This will mean that he should be able to raise the money and put together the resources necessary to mount a credible campaign.
But it is actually things beyond the control of either candidate that may pose the biggest threat to Golden’s reelection.
The three elections Golden has thus far won — 2018, 2020 and 2022 — have all been good years for Democrats and disappointing for Republicans. 2018 was a midterm election during the Trump presidency. In 2020, Trump carried the 2nd District, but by a much smaller share than he did in 2016. 2022 was a miserable year for Republicans in Maine, with Gov. Janet Mills winning reelection by beating former Gov. Paul LePage by double digits.
2024 is likely to be quite different. While we never know what will happen until it happens, it is very likely that this year will be much better for Republicans, at least in the 2nd District, than any of the prior three years were. Trump is not a troubled incumbent hampered by voter fatigue and pandemic fatigue as he was in 2020, and current polling nationally and in swing states shows he is in a much stronger position than he was at this time in 2020.
In February, Pan Atlantic Research, a Portland-based polling firm, released its latest omnibus poll, which showed Trump was leading President Joe Biden in Maine by a margin of 38 percent to 32 percent. Few people think that Trump will actually win Maine, but if the state looks more like 2016 than it did in 2020, Golden may be in trouble.
If Trump ends up winning the 2nd District by 10, 12 or even 15 points, that would have a significant down-ballot impact and Golden may be swept away as a result. If Trump only wins by single digits, it will be fairly hard for Theriault, even with a good profile and money, to take Golden out.
No one knows what will happen yet, but we know one thing: This race is going to be white hot, and undoubtedly the most fascinating campaign of 2024 in Maine.