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John Fitzgerald of Brunswick taught economics at Bowdoin College for 39 years, specializing in public policy evaluation.
About 14 percent of the U.S. population are immigrants, about the same proportion as one hundred years ago. Three-fourths are legal immigrants. A majority of us are immigrants or descendants of immigrants.
Is immigration good for U.S. workers?
Immigrants increase the supply of labor, both for professions like doctors and for manual work. This increase will not displace many U.S. workers because unemployment rates today are quite low — in Maine 2.8 percent.
Labor markets are not simple zero-sum games where one side gains and one side loses. Professor Giovanni Peri of the University of California at Davis Migration Research Cluster emphasizes that more workers result in economic growth. We have more health workers, more agricultural workers, and more people starting businesses. Most of the impact on wages falls on other immigrants who compete for similar jobs, such as agricultural workers. In fact, Peri Alessandro Caiumi, a graduate researcher at UC Davis, recently found a net positive effect on wages of native born workers because immigrants do different jobs and improve joint productivity rather than compete with native workers.
What about government costs?
Our government does provide assistance to many new immigrants and asylum seekers. Research shows that most working-age immigrants obtain jobs and pay more in taxes than they receive in services. The first generation may pay less in taxes than similar native-born workers due to lower wages, but the second generation pays more in taxes and receives less in services than similar native born workers. In addition, immigration of young workers will be needed to keep Social Security solvent given our low birthrate in the U.S. And, incidentally, illegal immigrants cannot claim Social Security benefits.
What is the impact on inflation?
Restricting immigration will increase consumer prices by reducing the supply of workers, tightening labor markets, and increasing production costs as noted by Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi. Fewer agricultural workers mean higher food prices. Although more workers increase the demand for some products, more workers increase production for products as well.
Larger population can put pressure on housing in some areas, but this should be handled by expanding housing construction through better housing policy, not by immigration restrictions.
On a related point, tariffs to try to keep out foreign goods are also inflationary, because U.S. consumers pay higher prices for most products either directly or because a lack of foreign competition allows domestic producers to raise prices. The analogy is that tariffs are a tax on foreign goods and that consumers bear much of this tax. If consumers have limited other options, as will be true for key imported goods and raw materials, then producers shift taxes to consumers by raising prices. Tariffs will increase many prices but none will fall.
What about the border?
About 84,000 illegal immigrants entered the U.S. in June. CBS News reports that the number of illegal border crossings has fallen over the last three years. Bipartisan legislation to further strengthen the border was ultimately rejected by Republicans in the Senate after former President Donald Trump demanded that Republicans not pass it so that it could be used as a campaign issue.
What about crime?
Consider the share of the population that ends up in prison. Research shows that immigrants are far less likely to be incarcerated than comparable native-born citizens. Further, a 2019 analysis found that a program that resulted in a large number of deportations from 2008-2014, the Secure Communities program, did not affect the violent crime rate.
Incidentally, Trump’s running mate JD Vance has admitted on CNN that his story about immigrants eating pets was false. He did it, he said, to raise rancor against immigrants. This says more about his character than the character of immigrants.
Our nation is strong because of decades of immigration. Let’s make immigration policy based on facts.